Social Network Theory and Metcalfe's Law

“You may hate gravity, but gravity doesn’t care.”

Clayton Christensen, Harvard Business School professor and author ‘The Innovator’s Dilemma’

While the focus of this book is on digital marketing, which by its very nature tends to gravitate towards the newest trends in technology, it can be extremely helpful to step back and realize that technology and marketing do indeed follow somewhat predictive patterns.

These revolve around how human beings view new ideas, join and build communities, consume information and establish relationships with brands.

The Internet at its core is all about serving up connections across a network. It started on the desktop and has evolved to weave itself into the fabric of our daily lives through social media. Platforms for communicating and connecting started with email and have morphed into Facebook and Twitter.

Yet, for all this new technology it still shares some common characteristics that are quite useful to understand and we can look to the emerging field of Network Theory for answers.

Telephones as a way to understand Network Theory

Let’s start with an invention we all take for granted, the telephone. In 1876, Alexander Graham Bell famously cried out, “Mr. Watson, come here! I want to see you!” and with that phrase the telephone was invented. By 1935 the first telephone call around the world was completed.

But how did the technology get adopted?

In the case of the telephone the old joke often goes, “The hardest sell in the world was the first telephone”.

This joke underscores the huge challenge of early user adoption and presenting the benefits of joining a network.

Social Network Theory and Metcalfe’s Law

The telephone can teach us much about how the online world works today by exploring a field of study called network theory and in particular Metcalfe’s Law. (Metcalfe’s Law is attributed to Robert Metcalfe, a former researcher at the famous Xerox Palo Alto Research Center who co-invented ethernet.)

Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).

A phone network is a perfect example to illustrate Metcalfe’s Law. A single phone really just being an end point in a network called a node. (The name comes from the Latin root of nodus, meaning ‘knot’). Obviously, today there are billions of nodes within global cellular networks.

So by punching in a simple phone number convention, we can use our phone to access the network (which we pay for) and connect to another node anywhere in the world. The value of the network to you as a user rises exponentially over time with the number of phones added to the network.

As you can imagine, in the 1930s the value of the phone network was still relatively small given the anemic number of people with access to a telephone.  But over time as the technology was adopted and the price fell, the value rose to the point that the simple telephone was in every home, business, and on every street corner.

Hint: See the parallel with the web and social media?

Introduction to Digital Marketing

This book is meant to be brief. The idea behind publishing updates to the text is to try and steal an idea from the open source software mantra of “release early, release often.”

The online world changes fast.

Which is why a digital format works well. We can observe current best practices and case studies and update sections every few months versus every few years.

The utter lack of textbooks for the beginner in this area speaks to the challenge of educating professionals and university students on a broad level of the basic fundamentals of digital marketing. When possible the student is encouraged to dive deeper into a particular field of study as this book and course is meant as an introduction and not an in-depth analysis. We could easily spend a semester going over just social media platforms and tactics.

The reader will notice quite a bit of history and what I call foundations that I believe are key to understanding digital marketing. A firm grasp of this area let’s the marketer analyze new trends and technology through a different lens. Technology is dependent on time and culture – remember radio was once a magical invention – yet it follows similar patterns for adoption.

I have made a concerted effort to weave a balance of theory and real-world examples. Together, I believe they help reinforce each other. I am deeply humbled and grateful to the digital marketing and design professionals who have generously donated their time for the case studies and career advice sections.

They represent what is great about the web – openness, sharing, giving back and a curiosity to learn.

Jacob Cook
Montana State University – College of Business
Bozeman, Montana
twitter: @ondigimarketing
Tadpull: A Full Service Digital Marketing Shop @TeamTadpull

Why Consumers Endure Broadcast Advertising

As we have seen throughout history, the rise of a new medium creates opportunities and challenges.

It’s easy to see why radio was a hit versus static newspapers when you think about the user’s experience with the different mediums. The human experience of storytelling is timeless and the radio programs of the era focused on the same elements told around campfires since the dawn of time – humor, drama, and education. The one advantage of reading a newspaper is the bit of control of what you would like to read. Albeit the content has been curated and edited by others.

With the arrival of television, the storytelling experience improved exponentially and suddenly closely related that of real-life. Nonverbal communication like facial expressions and body language suddenly leaped out of a plywood box into the living room. Following World War II, the country with its new found prosperity and manufacturing capacity eagerly latched on to building and consuming the new technology.

However, there was no way to tell in real-time if a user would remember the message and take action at the time of purchase. This led to the jaded marketing phrase, “spray and pray”.

There had to be a better way. Enter the web.

Rise of Television as Marketing Medium

“Television won’t last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
–Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946

Starting in the late 19th century, the idea to transmit and decode moving images was put forth in Europe. This culminated in the first scheduled television service in the US started on July 2, 1928. By 1947, there were 40 million radios and only about 44,000 television sets with the majority being clustered in the New York area due to broadcast networks. By 1951 the infrastructure stretched to the West Coast.

As with all successful technology adoptions, prices to acquire finally dropped to levels middle-class Americans could afford by 1947 with Motorola’s VT-71 priced at $189.95 (accounting for inflation this would be an astounding $1,843 today).

Amazingly only .5% of Americans had a television in 1946 but 55.7% owned one in 1954 and by 1962 ownership rose to 90%. The rise of television is one of the swiftest technology adoption rates in history.

Companies scratched their head about who would pay for all this content and looked to radio and newspaper advertising models where the content was given away for free (shows, news, etc.) and in exchange advertisers paid for spots to plug their products. NBC developed various drama series in the 1950s and sold sponsorship rights for programs like Kraft Television Theater.

Sound and Motion: Television Creates A New Media Experience

Like radio before it, the experience of watching television in the privacy of your own home was nothing short of mesmerizing. Stories that used to exist in only spoken form now had the richness of actors and could be enjoyed on a weekly basis. Americans began relating to others through conversations around their favorite shows. The medium was starting to shape culture and social interactions.

A Dream Medium for Marketers

Marketers began to see television as a massive shift in advertising tactics and one of incredible opportunity. It was a once in a lifetime medium for marketers – much like the web is today. Never before had moving images and voice been so easily combined to promote a product. Have a great laundry detergent? Well, let’s show our product instantly removing stains with a call to action to watch for coupons in this Sunday’s paper. The equation was fairly straight forward for driving sales and growth in consumer products. Company growth was limited in large part by the amount of dollars available to spend on advertising.

The nation was coming out of war, had a population boom, and was ready to purchase consumer goods in quantities and ways the world had never seen. Television networks had an incredible experience to offer and only three networks to access it on. The audience was tightly corralled with few choices for entertainment.

And so the three pillars of traditional media were sealed: print, radio, and television.

Market Domination: Before Microsoft there was RCA

As we saw in the previous section, RCA leveraged end to end control of device and connection in radio. As a new media emerged, the company also performed the incredibly rare feat of dominating another technology platform – television.

The National Broadcasting Company (NBC) was formed by RCA in 1926, funded in large part by its lucrative radio business. Soon after the company added another network and called the two NBC-Red and NBC-blue, respectively. Government regulators became concerned over the company’s increasing control of the airwaves and in 1943 forced the company to sell its Blue network, which eventually became ABC. The big three was thus born: NBC, ABC, and CBS. .

The tyranny of the three in this new field held considerable sway with companies and consumers. Adoption was helped along by visionary executive teams that saw not only the potential of such new technology but were also comfortable with the considerable risks and infrastructure investments needed.

The Tyranny of a Few

With a handful of companies controlling the words we read, the news and music we listened to, and the shows we watched, they wielded unbelievable power not only in product marketing but in society as a whole.

In the 1960 presidential race, candidate John F. Kennedy went head to head with Richard Nixon in the first ever televised debate. The debate was scheduled late in the day and Kennedy took the time to shave and was amicable to having makeup applied. Nixon declined. Once on-air Kennedy looked rested and youthful. Nixon appeared haggard and sweaty. The momentum shifted to Kennedy as his nonverbal communication style and appearance won over voters. He simply came across as more likable through the medium of television. Within a few short years, television was already able to change politics and shape public opinion.

The costs to deliver such messaging with a national reach were far less than door-to-door sales. Companies had to compete through advertising and leveraged all they could through creative work and big media buys. The popular television series Mad Men seeks to show what Madison Avenue was like during this hay day.

The First Fracturing

During the late 1970s, cable television rose to prominence in many American homes with almost 16 million paying for the service by the end of the decade. While there had traditionally been the major broadcast networks of ABC, NBC, and CBS which broadcast their content for free, the cable companies looked to charge customers for access to their packaged content and in addition also relied heavily on advertising.

Following deregulation with the 1984 Cable Act, growth exploded and an endless variety of channels sprouted up. The rise of stations devoted exclusively to news, sports, or music allowed viewers to tune into the content they wanted. While they still had no say over the scheduling, they were one-step closer to picking the subject matter.

The result of all this choice led to a splintering of the television audience. While Americans continued to watch more television, viewers were not as tightly contained as before. Marketers used this to their advantage and were able to more finely target their messaging based on the viewership demographics. In short, they traded broad reach for the ability to segment viewers. For example, those viewers tuning into CNN would likely be college-educated and upper-income and thus potential customers for financial services.

The model of advertising spends associated with sales more or less held true but was starting to ever so slightly wane in its ability to deliver results.

The video below gives a good overview on the invention of the television.

The History of Radio and Marketing

Radio and the Rise of Mass Media

Congratulations. You’re entering the field of marketing at a time of incredible change. An industry once stagnant for decades is undergoing seismic shifts and whenever there is big change there is big opportunity.

It’s easy to take these changes and technology for granted. In the grand scheme of mass communication, digital marketing is still in its early stages. Many of the most influential companies in the industry have only been around since the 2000s – Google was founded in September of 1998, Facebook came on the scene in February of 2004 and YouTube followed a year later in February 2005 – but these companies have forever changed the field of marketing leaving many organizations and professionals struggling to adapt. The web space moves quickly and disruption is becoming the norm – who would have thought mobile would eclipse desktop so quickly?

But things weren’t always so quick to change.

To truly understand the framework of marketing we need to take a step back and review our history lessons as they offer clues on how to market effectively.

Radio’s Fundamental Role

“The radio craze will die out in time.”
— Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1922

While newspapers have been around for hundreds of years following Gutenberg’s printing press invention, radio was the first mass media form of communication that offered near real-time delivery and saw widespread use in most American homes by the 1930s. Various radio programs, such as the Chase and Sanborn Hour, were the precursors to network television series and developed large audiences of regular listeners.

The Radio Corporation of America (RCA) was formed after World War I and by the 1930s not only was a radio manufacturer but also had a firm grip on program stations and program stars. It owned the device and the network – a powerful combination. (Source) Take note, as we’ll return to this in a second.

Taking a cue from the newspaper industry, marketers looked to subsidize the medium through advertisement. In exchange for airtime, companies paid to to plug their products with program sponsorships and thus began the infamous lead-in of “This message brought to you by”. Savvy marketers at this time were starting to weave their messaging together so that print ads in magazines and newspapers coincided with the radio message. This was the precursor to a marketing philosophy that would eventually be called Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC).

Everything changed with World War II. We’ve all heard President Roosevelt’s scratchy voice booming out to the nation after the events of Pearl Harbor. In fact, Roosevelt was one of the first politicians to realize how the medium could be used as a tool for communicating with constituents through his “Fireside Chats” during the Great Depression. (Another early adopter, Senator Barack Obama, would brilliantly use new technology platforms almost 75 years later to help galvanize young voters through social media.)

By the early 1940s, the radio was deeply integrated into Americans lives and culture. Following the Allied victory, Americans were ready for the good life. They’d suffered through the Depression and felt entitled to a bit of prosperity. This also saw the largest jump in birth rates, a cohort that was to become known as the “Baby Boom” or Baby Boomers as they are known today. Given their large numbers and incredible buying power, this demographic would go on to shape society and consumer behavior.

A Beginner’s Textbook for Digital Marketing and Social Media

digital-marketing-traffic-sources

College Textbook for Digital Marketing and Social Media

Welcome!

You’re in a good spot – There is no better time to get into digital marketing.

The revolutions of social media and mobile have ensured that all is up for grabs for building tomorrow’s brands today. Armed with curiosity, a great experience to market and the analytics to test assumptions, today’s digital marketers are upending massive markets.

Simply look at Uber for transportation or AirBnB for lodging.

Companies built with a user at the center and technology supporting remarkable experiences.

And doing it all off of data in near real-time.

Who This Book is Written For

A Beginners Guide to Digital Marketing and Social Media was written for the absolute beginner – no digital experience required.

Which covers:

  1. Knowing Your User with free online tools and good old fashioned interviews
  2. Then building the digital experience around their needs and devices
  3. Producing the right content to rank for SEO
  4. And sharing it on the right social media channels
  5. With the appropriate paid media mix
  6. To build a clean opt-in email list
  7. For consideration of a purchase or a conversion

The book has been heavily influenced by the ideas of Design Thinking and mixed with the day to day challenges of being in the trenches for building online brands for B2B and B2C global companies. It strives to strike a balance between grounded marketing theory and practical hands-on experience.

In addition, world-class experts from companies like R/GA, Design Within Reach, IDEO, Google, Facebook, Kickstarter and MailChimp have generously offered up suggestions to tie real-world considerations to the marketing theories presented.

Let’s get started!

Section 1: Foundations of Digital World

This section starts with a brief history of advertising, rise of mass media, and how marketing has changed in the digital age. Next, we’ll cover the core theories of the online world like Metcalfe’s Law, Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations, Adoption Curves, Dunbar’s number, and Moore’s Law.

Lot’s of theory here but it provides a great foundation for why Facebook grew so fast. Why new ideas are hard to get massive adoption and how to plan for introducing new technology online.

Goal: Understand how marketing has changed and the fundamental laws that help shape the online world.

Chapter 1: The Rise of Mass Media and Changing Marketing Mindset

  1. Before Microsoft there was RCA: Radio and Rise of Mass Media
  2. Staring at a plywood box: Rise of Television as a Marketing Medium
  3. Why Consumers Endure Advertising: Chapter Summary
Optional Handout: Rethinking Marketing from Harvard Business School (free registration required).

Chapter 2: Laws of the Online Universe

  1. The real social network: Social Network Theory and Metcalfe’s Law
  2. Early growth is hard: Facebook and Metcalfe’s Law Explained
  3. The only constant is change: Moore’s Law and Technology Growth
  4. Craig’s List: Tying Moore and Metcalfe’s Laws Together

Chapter 3: Becoming Popular is Hard

  1. How we evaluate new change: Diffusion of Innovations
  2. Not Everyone Can Be First: How Innovations Get Adopted
  3. Apple knows we’re lazy and stupid: Factors that Influence Adoption Rates
  4. What this all means:  Mashing Up Social Network Theories and Adoption Curves

Chapter 4: Nobody Cares About You, Until You Screw Up (and what to do about it)

  1. The true currency online: Earning Attention
  2. It’s the experience, stupid: Gratitude
  3. Dell Hell: What Happens When Companies Don’t Listen

Section 2: Research Fundamentals for Online Marketing

Here we get into the fun work of truly understanding your target market beyond traditional demographic and psychographic profiles. Tools like user personas and keyword analysis will help cement the concepts of search, user experience, network effects, and the importance of optimized content.

Goal: Learn how to empathize with your ideal user’s online habits.

Chapter 5: Getting to Know Your Customer

  1. How to think like your customer: The case for Design Thinking in digital
  2. A name and a face: An example User Persona
  3. Digging for dirt: Doing Secondary Market Research

Chapter 6: Delighting Your Customer

  1. Who Are These People?
  2. Earning Their Attention: Content and Search
  3. Branding and Price: The Slippery Slope in the Digital Age
  4. Are Marketers Liars? Delightful Experiences. Who We Trust and Why

 Chapter 7: Engaging With Your Customer

  1. Any Way You Slice It: A Third Way to Segment Customers
  2. Which One Are You? Social Media Users
  3. But Will They Care? Researching Social Media Engagement
  4. Get Feedback: Empathy Map for Capturing User Feedback

Chapter 8: Introduction to Search

  1. How do they know? History of Web and Search Engines
  2. Webs, Spiders Oh My! How Search Engines Work
  3. Black magic: How Google Ranks Pages

Beginner’s Guide to SEO

Chapter 9: The Long Tail

  1. A tail of what? What the Long Tail is
  2. Why it exists: The 3 Forces of the Long Tail
  3. Really, there’s an audience? The Long Tail and Search Strategy

Chapter 10: Keyword Research

  1. Being in the Top 3: What Are the Search Engine Results Pages? (SERPs)
  2. Whiteboard + Post It notes: 10 Steps to Better Keyword Brainstorms
  3. You Autocomplete Me: Brand First Impressions on the SERPs
  4. The Writhing Long Tail: How to do Keyword Research

Chapter 11: Competitive Research

  1. The Rise and Fall of Keywords: Using Google Trends for SEO
  2. Keeping Up with the Joneses: Researching Competitors’ Traffic and Social Media Engagement
  3. Overwhelming Noise: A Framework for Online Marketing Research

Section 3: Digital Strategy

Once we know our ideal user’s habits we’ll set about understanding how to reach them using the web. Topics include paid search advertising, social media, defining online metrics for success, public relations, mobile, design, and building engaged online communities around a brand or cause.

Goal: Using your new research skills, form a strategy for building an effective brand online.

Chapter 12: Strategy and Trust

  1. Fairy dust and the Customer Experience Ecosystem
  2. Ready. Aim. Fire – Why Research Should Guide Strategy
  3. Building Trust Online: What Makes a Website Credible
  4. Hype or Hustle?: How to Start Growth Hacking

Chapter 13: Tying Profitability to Marketing Objectives

  1. Profitability not sales: A Definition for this Key Metric
  2. Knowing Your Costs: Acquisition vs. Retention – a simple example
  3. Customer Experience: Tying Digital Marketing Strategy to Business Growth

Chapter 14: How to Set a Strategy

  1. Earning Your Salary: Marketers as Drivers for Customer Insights
  2. Shiny Objects: How to Evaluate Social Media and Digital Marketing Tools
  3. Things Are Slipping: Example of When Strategy is Misaligned
  4. Setting POSTs: Getting Our Shoe Company Back On Track

Chapter 15: Strategy Summary

  1. Be SMART: Tips on a Smart Digital Strategy
  2. Example: B2B Web Service Company
  3. KP what? What are Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s)

Zero Moment of Truth

Section 4: Executing Online and Social Media Campaigns

Chapter 16: Getting Started with Execution

  1. Where we’ve been: Preparation for Successful Execution
  2. Virtual Architecture: How to Build a Sitemap
  3. Sketchy design: How to do Website Wireframes

Chapter 17: Managing Technology Builds

  1. How Blogs Help: Why Blogging Matters for Websites
  2. Mock It Before You Build It: How To Build Prototypes
  3. Shipping Is Hard: Tips on How to Launch

Chapter 18: Are Websites Still Relevant?

  1. Isn’t there an app for that? Native vs. Responsive Design
  2. Nobody Likes You on Facebook and Means it: Why Websites Still Matter

Chapter 19: Executing Online Campaigns

  1. The Myth of Growth: Introduction to Owned, Earned, and Paid Media
  2. Own it: It’s Better To Own than Rent
  3. Earning Your Keep: Why Earned Is So Powerful
  4. It’s Expensive to Fail: Why Paid Should Come Last

Chapter 20: Ongoing Engagement

  1. Quality and Quantity: How to Think About Website Traffic
  2. Planting Seeds: Ways to Think About Nurturing Website Visitors
  3. Post Conversion: Nurturing Website Visitors

Section 5: Measurement and Online Analytics

The biggest opportunity for digital marketers is to effectively measure their work. We’ll cover how traditional metrics like CPM’s transfer to the online world and look into free reporting tools like Google Analytics and HootSuite for measuring the effectiveness of online campaigns.

Goal: Understand what are online marketing metrics. In addition, how to measure and effectively report efforts across social media, search, and content creation.

Chapter 21: Not All Traffic is Equal

  1. Digital fingerprints: Understanding the Clickstream
  2. The What and The Why: Introduction to Digital Analytics
  3. Caller ID: How Web Analytics Works (Briefly)

Chapter 22: Introduction to Basic Web Metrics Part 1

  1. Visitors and Time: Uniques, Time on Page/Site Explained
  2. Bouncing Along Online: What is a Bounce Rate?
  3. Know What Converts: What is a Website Conversion Rate?
  4. Vanity Metrics: Measuring Basic Online Engagement

Chapter 23: Real Life Examples

  1. Cobbler’s Kids: OnDigitalMarketing’s Analytics Part I
  2. Defining Success: OnDigitalMarketing’s KPIs

Introduction →

Meet the Prof

Jake Cook has been working in digital marketing since 2004 (an eternity in internet time). An adjunct professor since 2007, Jake has developed and taught undergraduate, graduate and executive education courses around high tech marketing, digital marketing & analytics, social media, lean startup and design thinking for institutions such as Montana State University (MSU) and Minneapolis College of Art & Design. Jake was also part of MSU’s founding interdisciplinary team that started the Design Sandbox for Engaged Learning (DSEL) based on inspiration and guidance from Stanford’s d.school. He currently serves as the academic director for Montana State University’s Execution Education program “Digital Marketing & Analytics” developed in part with leadership from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.

Alumni from his courses have gone to secure jobs at companies like R/GA, Google, Yelp, CBS Interactive, and a host of startups. (Such bright and driven students always keep him on his toes). Jake was recently honored by the American Marketing Association MSU’s chapter as “Outstanding Marketing Professor” in 2016 and Merit Teaching Award for Excellence from the Dean’s Office at Jake Jabs College of Business and Entrepreneurship.

A firm believer that teach digital marketing means you have to do digital marketing means Jake is constantly tweaking with this website and helping clients at Tadpull, a boutique digital marketing & software shop based in Bozeman, Montana with global clients. The company is currently developing data mining & analytics tools to leverage machine learning for driving better ROI across online campaigns. Across his career he’s been fortunate to work for companies such as Google, Microsoft, The Webby Awards, InternetWeek NY, DonorsChoose.org, Medallia, Jackson Hole Resort, Outdoor Research, and Mystery Ranch.

You can also find his writings and interviews on Smashing Magazine and Adobe’s 99U blog.

Jake earned a BA with honors in Physics and an MA in Marketing from Drury University in Springfield, Missouri.

Feel free to drop him a line anytime at [email protected]